Articles by mgedwards

Santa Claus comes to town

I took a couple days off from blogging to prepare for the Christmas season.  As usual, there’s too much work involved getting ready for Christmas to consider it enjoyable.  The annual ritual plays out as follows:  Put up Christmas tree and trappings, put together Christmas list, buy Christmas cards and gifts, write Christmas cards, wrap Christmas presents, mail Christmas presents, and prepare for the Christmas meal, and take down Christmas paraphernalia.  Using overseas living as a cover, I’m modifying our Christmas regimen this year.  Most people will receive Christmas wishes by e-mail from us this year.  We’re only going to send out about 20 Christmas cards, mostly to family members, and we’ll e-mail our Christmas letter with some personalized wishes to everyone else.  As our Christmas list grows, I’m glad technology will finally be helpful.  I would prefer to send cards by snail mail, but it’s just too much work.  I think it detracts from the spirit of the holiday to set up a Christmas card factory for the sake of tradition.  Fortunately, this is the very first year since we married in which we will spend Christmas Day at our home.  In the past, we either spent Christmas with my parents or celebrated it on vacation overseas.  I’m relishing the opportunity to be home for the holidays.
 
Today we hosted a party at our home for my wife’s Korean coworkers.  It was exceptional.  Most attendees had never been to an American-style Christmas party with holiday ambiance, western food (no kimchi!), Santa Claus, and a gift exchange.  We prepared a mountain of food for the event, including London broil, roast chicken, Swedish meatballs, mashed potatoes and gravy, smoked salmon, deviled eggs, mini quiche, salad, fruit, cookies, and pumpkin and apple pie.  We also offered an assortment of drinks, ranging from soda pop to Johnnie Walker Black Label Scotch whiskey, a Korean favorite.  Most attendees drank wine, soju, a Korean liquor, or Coca-Cola.  We held back the egg nog because Koreans do not usually drink milk products.
 
Following dinner, Santa Claus made a special appearance.  OK, it wasn’t really Santa Claus–I absconded a Santa suit and suited up for the occasion.  St. Nicholas is much too busy getting ready for Christmas and visiting shopping malls to come by our little ol’ house for a visit.  We actually have our own Santa suit at work for representational events.  I borrowed the suit for an event on Monday, so I brought it home and gave it a dry run.  Back in the states, my father and his wife have portrayed Santa and Mrs. Claus on numerous occasions, visiting children and the elderly around Christmastime.  I was happy to carry on the legacy.  I am a bit young to play Santa, but I’m stout and can bellow a hearty "Ho ho ho!"  (Someone told me I sound like the announcer from the game show, "The Price is Right.")  I can’t believe how hot it is inside a Santa suit.  I was itching to take it off the minute I put it on!  The hat was heavy and kept slipping off my head, and I repeatedly had to adjust my gray hair piece (note to self–use hairpins).  I now know what all those mall Santas have to go through wearing hot, itchy Santa suits and putting up with distressed children.  Poor guys.  I’m glad I only had to portray Santa for about 20 minutes.  Some of the children at our party were scared of me dressed as Santa.  One little boy who took a liking to me began to cry when his parents tried to put him on my lap.  Fortunately, my son was in on the ruse and helped bring other children over for gifts and photos.  He knew that daddy was playing Santa and called me "Daddy Santa."  I thought it was cute.  Mommy served as Santa’s helper, although she forgot to put on her "Santa’s Helper" ballcap.  After handing out gifts to all the good children and submitting to a photo op, Santa disappeared.  I posted some of the photos from Santa’s appearance in the photos section.
 
Following Santa’s visit, we held a gift exchange.  The "exchange" included the ability to steal a gift if you preferred someone else’s treasure to your own, much like a "white elephant" gift exchange.  I participated in the exchange on behalf of a partner at my wife’s firm who had to leave the party early.  I made sure he got the Jim Bean American bourbon whiskey.  I didn’t think he would enjoy the body care set or the scented candles.  I don’t think that Koreans are familiar with "white elephant-style" gift exchanges, so it was a fun and unique experience for them.  They brought us many wonderful gifts, including Korean and Australian wine and a bowl and dish set.  I have to go so I can start writing thank-you cards.

Anticipating the future

I shared some drinks tonight with a good friend.  We had a great time talking about all sorts of topics.  One topic sticks in my mind that I’ll share with you tonight–future investment opportunities.  My friend and I talked about anticipating the future.  He mentioned that the energy industry will continue to be hot because price of oil will continue its historic highs for the foreseeable future.  He is correct.  I pointed out that a global depression would suppress the price of a barrel of oil.  Unlikely as that is, it is a possibility.  A more likely scenerio however is that the price of oil will hover between $50 and $70 per barrel for the foreseeable future.  I talked about the rise of India and that the savvy investor will look beyond China, currently the world’s hottest market, towards India.  India, according to a BusinessWeek special report, is projected to surpassed China’s GDP in the late 21st century.  China is hot now, but public Indian companies generally offer better performance than their Chinese counterparts.  As someone married to a wife from China, it may smack of heresay to say that you should keep your eye on India over China.  However, with so many eyes on China right now, it would be wiser to be contrarian and look forward to the day when India will be just as hot, if not hotter, than China.
 
If you could look into a proverbial crystal ball and anticipate future economic trends, getting an early lead on investing opportunities, what would you see?  Here are my thoughts.  Note that I did not include the Internet, nor did I include biotechnology.  While both industries still hold great promise, they represent current trends in technology rather than future trends.
  • Energy:  Energy demand will sustain high energy prices with no viable mass-produced alternative to traditional fossil for at least 20 years.  In the near-term, the best investment opportunities may be in traditional energy exploration, such as drilling companies.  In the longer term, alternative energy producers will be a good investment.
  • India:  While India has often been mentioned along with China as an upcoming economic power, India may have even greater economy potential in the next 30 years.  Indian companies offer better investment return than Chinese company, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in India has lagged FDI in China.  It won’t for long.
  • Nanotechnology:  Nanotechnology is technology developed on a molecular scale.  Within 20 years, nanotechnology will be a viable industry that will likely revolutionize materials technology.  It may very well follow the rise of the Internet as the next great frontier.  Unfortunately, it is currently a risky area with so few public companies and available. 
  • Decentralized media:  The Web will profoundly shape journalism and media.  Currently a wild west morphing in phenomena such as eBay, e-networking, and the blogosphere, a future investment opportunity lies with those companies such as Technorati and eBay that can capitalize on these phenomena, just as Google dominates search.  Look for this trend to develop in the next five years.
  • Microcredit:  Microcredit, or extending small loans to individuals in developing countries, will become big business over the next two decades as developing countries such as India and Indonesia enter periods of sustained economic expansion.  Banks and financial institutions will benefit.
  • United States of America:  Americans are at their best when they are paranoid.  As Andy Groves likes to say, "Only the paranoid survive."  Whether it’s Hurricane Katrina or the rise of China as a world power or the trade deficit, the tendency to dismiss the United States seems to be oversubscribed.  It seems to happen with the perceived rise of a rival state.  Yet since its inception, the U.S. has survived many crises and has thrived, even in a multi-polar world.  Over the long term, invest in small- and mid-cap U.S. stocks, many of which will deliver excellent returns.
  • RFID:  Within the next decade, RFID (radio frequency identification) chips will begin to replace bar coding as a means of tracking inventory.  These microchips will allow unprecedented tracking of inventory, taking inventory management to a level not yet seen.  Companies that develop RFID or capitalize on its benefits early will have advantages over companies that do not.
  • Aging:  The world is getting aging at a rapid pace.  In the U.S., Baby Boomers are turning 60 years old.  Japan, Korea, and Europe face ever graying populations.  Companies that assist this growing, aging population, including healthcare, leisure companies, and retirement service companies, will benefit substantially from the aging population boom over the next two decades.
  • Alternative investment vehicles:  Equities, bonds, real estate, and venture capital have all matured.  Savvy investors are looking for other ways to invest.  There is a good reason why alternative investment vehicles such as hedge funds, exchange-traded funds, and gold are so popular right now–investors want to diversify.  The recent successful launch of several gold funds leads me to believe that in the future other commodity funds will launch with great success.  Possible funds could include timber funds, alternative metal funds (silver/platinum), and water funds.  Imagine holding 5% timber in your investment portfolio, which you purchased through your broker.  In the not-so-distant future, you will have that option.
I would be remiss if I did not mention that I’m sorry to hear that management guru Peter Drucker recently passed away.  He was a giant in the field of management and will be missed.  As a student of management, I appreciate his teachings, although I did not always agree with them.  He left behind a legacy that should be sustained by his foundation, the Leader to Leader Institute.

A downer day

OK, I have to admit that I am not a happy camper this evening.  The day was trying.  Not much went right.  I finished a lot of work, yet it still keeps piling up.  Whenever I write this blog, I’m either usually in a good mood or pretend to be in a good mood.  I’ll admit that today is just a downer day.  We all have them.  One hopes that there are more happy, positive days than not.  Unless you are under duress or blissfully ignorant, you’re bound to have both good days and bad days.  Perhaps the only people who are perpetually unhappy are those who are imprisoned in gulags and prison camps.  Today, walking to lunch in the freezing cold, I thought about the estimated 200,000 North Koreans imprisoned in gulags north of the DMZ.  The thought woke me up to a unsettling reality.  I may be unhappy today, but I do not really have a reason to complain.  My life is absolutely blissfully compared to the horrendous ordeal of gulag prisoners.
 
So, what happened?  Oh, a nasty comment and a cold shoulder by a couple of people today initially put me in a foul mood.  I do my best not to take them personally, but it’s a bitter pill to swallow.  Most days I try to shrug it off, but today I couldn’t help but dwell on them.  My life is surrounded by perpetual competitiveness, and sometimes competition rears its ugly head.  I’m competitive by nature, as are most people around me, but I don’t appreciate when competition creates social tension.  I prefer to believe that there is enough room in this world for everyone, and when we work together, we achieve a better outcome.  Sometimes someone else wins, but you can be happy for them and still be successful yourself.  For example, only one person wins a road race, but everyone who finishes can be happy knowing that they crossed the finish line.  Life does not have to be a zero-sum game.
 
At the same time, I also realize that in this competitive environment, you are inevitably responsible for your own success and excellence.  However, success should not come at the expense of other people’s livelihoods.  The comment and cold shoulder were byproducts of jealousy and mistrust in a very competitive atmosphere.  I really wish we could all get along and realize that we don’t always have to be so competitive.  We all have strengths we can use for the greater good.  I’m an intuitive thinker who innovates, but I am not good at inspiring others to embrace these innovations or defending my position.  That leads to tension and failure.  I know my limitations, and that is where I know others excel.  Let them excel, but don’t excel at my expense.  If I had to choose one aspect of this lifestyle I dislike the most, it’s the incessant competition and drive to be successful, even when it comes at the expense of your peers.  It obviously tends to foster an unpleasant atmosphere…and make you unhappy. 
 
Blog Notes:  You may be wondering the significance of my last blog entry.  I didn’t have much time to write last night, so the thought crossed my mind that I should write the shortest blog entry in the ever-expanding blogosphere.  I have no idea if I succeeded!  Perhaps, Dear Reader, you can tell me.  The subject shouldn’t count–just the content.  In case you wondered what "Oh" meant, the trite phrase served as a response to the title statement.  Believe it or not, I spent about five minutes figuring out what to write, thinking, "Hmm, what is the shortest word that still sounds profound?"  You didn’t see the thought process behind the final product.  "OK" made the final round, as did the word, "Bye."  I figured that if I wrote the word "Bye," some readers would wonder whether I planned to stop writing.  "Oh" carried the day.  "Oh" is an exclamation of discovery and understanding.  It’s the shortest, most thoughtful, content-laden word that crossed my mind.  And it took me an entire paragraph to explain!